These factors are part of the longer term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development - known as the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes - which have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development.

El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors - some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it - driving this year's overall forecast for a near-normal season.Īfter three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

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